Liga Pro · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 01:00. Final score 3–2 (half-time 3–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Independiente del Valle at 69%, the draw at 20% and Delfin SC at 11%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 0.63.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 57% | +17% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 46% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Independiente del Valle 1.20, draw 6.50, Delfin SC 11.00.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Independiente del Valle have 15 in 24 this season (7 of 12 at home), Delfin SC 6 in 24 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.97 for Independiente del Valle and 0.63 for Delfin SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 24 | 63% | 42% | 46% |
| Delfin SC | 24 | 25% | 8% | 33% |
More: Independiente del Valle season stats · Delfin SC season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.