Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 13:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 74% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Ilves W at 52%, the draw at 20% and IF Gnistan at 28%, from expected goals of 2.22 and 1.61.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ilves W have 12 in 15 this season (5 of 7 at home), IF Gnistan 12 in 15 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 75%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.22 for Ilves W and 1.61 for IF Gnistan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves W | 15 | 80% | 47% | 60% |
| IF Gnistan | 15 | 80% | 60% | 53% |
More: Ilves W season stats · IF Gnistan season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.