Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 73% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Ilves W at 49%, the draw at 22% and IF Gnistan at 30%, from expected goals of 2.07 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ilves W have 12 in 15 this season (5 of 7 at home), IF Gnistan 12 in 15 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.07 for Ilves W and 1.59 for IF Gnistan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves W | 15 | 80% | 47% | 60% |
| IF Gnistan | 15 | 80% | 60% | 53% |
More: Ilves W season stats · IF Gnistan season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.