Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 13:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Haugesund W at 22%, the draw at 19% and Stabæk W at 59%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 2.36.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haugesund W have 10 in 12 this season (6 of 6 at home), Stabæk W 8 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 71% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Haugesund W and 2.36 for Stabæk W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haugesund W | 12 | 83% | 42% | 67% |
| Stabæk W | 12 | 67% | 25% | 42% |
More: Haugesund W season stats · Stabæk W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.