Liga Pro · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 67% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Guayaquil City FC at 40%, the draw at 33% and Libertad at 27%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 0.77.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 33% | -12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 67% | +12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 43% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Guayaquil City FC 1.95, draw 3.25, Libertad 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Guayaquil City FC have 7 in 24 this season (3 of 12 at home), Libertad 11 in 24 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 0.99 for Guayaquil City FC and 0.77 for Libertad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City FC | 24 | 29% | 17% | 42% |
| Libertad | 24 | 46% | 17% | 46% |
More: Guayaquil City FC season stats · Libertad season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.