Superettan · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Falkenbergs FF at 40%, the draw at 28% and Norrby IF at 32%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.11.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 51% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 49% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 59% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Falkenbergs FF 1.80, draw 3.60, Norrby IF 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Falkenbergs FF have 13 in 18 this season (4 of 9 at home), Norrby IF 9 in 18 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Falkenbergs FF and 1.11 for Norrby IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkenbergs FF | 18 | 72% | 44% | 83% |
| Norrby IF | 18 | 50% | 39% | 67% |
More: Falkenbergs FF season stats · Norrby IF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.