League Cup · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Dunfermline at 44%, the draw at 27% and Ross County at 29%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. League Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dunfermline have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Ross County 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 45% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Dunfermline and 1.06 for Ross County. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Ross County | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Dunfermline season stats · Ross County season stats · League Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.