FAI Cup · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 8–0 (half-time 3–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts Dundalk at 47%, the draw at 25% and Castlebar Celtic at 29%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. FAI Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dundalk have 16 in 27 this season (8 of 13 at home), Castlebar Celtic 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Dundalk and 1.22 for Castlebar Celtic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk | 27 | 59% | 37% | 74% |
| Castlebar Celtic | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Dundalk season stats · FAI Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.