FAI Cup · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–3). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts College Corinthians at 50%, the draw at 23% and Drogheda United at 26%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. FAI Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. College Corinthians have 0 in 0 this season, Drogheda United 14 in 27 (9 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.76 for College Corinthians and 1.21 for Drogheda United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| College Corinthians | 0 | — | — | — |
| Drogheda United | 27 | 52% | 33% | 59% |
More: Drogheda United season stats · FAI Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.