Serie C · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 23:30. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Brusque at 49%, the draw at 27% and Inter De Limeira at 24%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 0.91.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 41% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 59% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 46% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Brusque 1.91, draw 3.10, Inter De Limeira 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brusque have 8 in 16 this season (5 of 8 at home), Inter De Limeira 8 in 16 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Brusque and 0.91 for Inter De Limeira. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brusque | 16 | 50% | 19% | 56% |
| Inter De Limeira | 16 | 50% | 19% | 56% |
More: Brusque season stats · Inter De Limeira season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.