Kvindeligaen (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 12:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts ASA Aarhus W at 43%, the draw at 24% and Nordsjælland W at 33%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ASA Aarhus W have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Nordsjælland W 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.6 for ASA Aarhus W and 1.38 for Nordsjælland W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASA Aarhus W | 2 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| Nordsjælland W | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: ASA Aarhus W season stats · Nordsjælland W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.