Pro League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 17:45. Final score 5–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Wasl FC at 38%, the draw at 25% and Dubai United at 37%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.44.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 49% | -14% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 51% | +14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 55% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.30, draw 4.75, Dubai United 7.00.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Wasl FC have 0 in 0 this season, Dubai United 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Al-Wasl FC and 1.44 for Dubai United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Wasl FC | 0 | — | — | — |
| Dubai United | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Al-Wasl FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.