League Cup · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Aberdeen at 48%, the draw at 26% and Dundee at 26%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. League Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aberdeen have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Dundee 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 37% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 64%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Aberdeen and 1.06 for Dundee. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Aberdeen season stats · Dundee season stats · League Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.