Copa Libertadores · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 01:30. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Rosario Central at 42%, the draw at 29% and Corinthians at 29%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rosario Central have 11 in 23 this season (6 of 12 at home), Corinthians 7 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Rosario Central and 0.95 for Corinthians. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 23 | 48% | 9% | 61% |
| Corinthians | 22 | 32% | 18% | 45% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.