Super League · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 13:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Qingdao Youth Island at 51%, the draw at 27% and Chongqing Tongliang Long at 22%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 0.8.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 47% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 50% | 62% | +12% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.10, draw 3.20, Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Qingdao Youth Island have 8 in 22 this season (3 of 11 at home), Chongqing Tongliang Long 8 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.8 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Youth Island | 22 | 36% | 27% | 64% |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 22 | 36% | 27% | 55% |
More: Qingdao Youth Island season stats · Chongqing Tongliang Long season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.