Coppa Italia · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 2–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | no pick |
The result model puts Parma at 28%, the draw at 28% and Catania at 43%, from expected goals of 0.97 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Coppa Italia has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Parma have 11 in 38 this season (6 of 19 at home), Catania 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 0.97 for Parma and 1.27 for Catania. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 38 | 29% | 16% | 39% |
| Catania | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Parma season stats · Coppa Italia table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.