Superettan · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Landskrona BoIS at 37%, the draw at 25% and Oddevold at 38%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.42.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 56% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 44% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 59% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.15, draw 3.30, Oddevold 2.90.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Landskrona BoIS have 8 in 18 this season (3 of 8 at home), Oddevold 11 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Landskrona BoIS and 1.42 for Oddevold. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landskrona BoIS | 18 | 44% | 22% | 50% |
| Oddevold | 18 | 61% | 44% | 67% |
More: Landskrona BoIS season stats · Oddevold season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.