League Cup · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:45. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts Kilmarnock at 33%, the draw at 25% and Ayr Utd at 41%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. League Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kilmarnock have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Ayr Utd 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Kilmarnock and 1.49 for Ayr Utd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Ayr Utd | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: Kilmarnock season stats · Ayr Utd season stats · League Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.