Europa League · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 0–5 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts KI Klaksvik at 46%, the draw at 26% and Lech Poznan at 28%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KI Klaksvik have 7 in 18 this season (3 of 9 at home), Lech Poznan 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 18 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.49 for KI Klaksvik and 1.09 for Lech Poznan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KI Klaksvik | 18 | 39% | 28% | 56% |
| Lech Poznan | 3 | 67% | 0% | 33% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.