2. Deild · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 3–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Haukar at 65%, the draw at 18% and Hvíti Riddarinn at 16%, from expected goals of 2.35 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haukar have 14 in 16 this season (7 of 8 at home), Hvíti Riddarinn 7 in 16 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 77% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.35 for Haukar and 1.11 for Hvíti Riddarinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haukar | 16 | 88% | 50% | 75% |
| Hvíti Riddarinn | 16 | 44% | 44% | 56% |
More: Haukar season stats · Hvíti Riddarinn season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.