Copa Sudamericana · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 01:30. Final score 6–1 (half-time 4–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Cienciano at 54%, the draw at 21% and Botafogo at 25%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cienciano have 13 in 21 this season (7 of 11 at home), Botafogo 15 in 21 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Cienciano and 1.37 for Botafogo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 21 | 62% | 38% | 62% |
| Botafogo | 21 | 71% | 38% | 76% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.