Coppa Italia · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 17:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Cagliari at 36%, the draw at 28% and Arezzo at 36%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Coppa Italia has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cagliari have 19 in 38 this season (7 of 19 at home), Arezzo 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Cagliari and 1.19 for Arezzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 38 | 50% | 18% | 50% |
| Arezzo | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Cagliari season stats · Coppa Italia table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.