Europa League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 18:30. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–2). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts Vikingur Reykjavik at 69%, the draw at 16% and FC Thun at 16%, from expected goals of 2.91 and 1.39.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vikingur Reykjavik have 14 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), FC Thun 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 18 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.91 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 1.39 for FC Thun. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 78% | 72% | 61% |
| FC Thun | 3 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.