1. Deild · Thursday, 13 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 69% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Vestri at 53%, the draw at 21% and IR Reykjavik at 27%, from expected goals of 2.26 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vestri have 10 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), IR Reykjavik 12 in 17 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 17 and 17 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.26 for Vestri and 1.59 for IR Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vestri | 17 | 59% | 41% | 59% |
| IR Reykjavik | 17 | 71% | 53% | 76% |
More: Vestri season stats · IR Reykjavik season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.