1. Deild · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 74% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Vestri at 53%, the draw at 18% and IR Reykjavik at 28%, from expected goals of 2.65 and 1.94.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 74% | +13% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 26% | -13% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 69% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Vestri 2.55, draw 3.40, IR Reykjavik 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vestri have 10 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), IR Reykjavik 12 in 17 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 84%, from expected goals of 2.65 for Vestri and 1.94 for IR Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vestri | 17 | 59% | 41% | 59% |
| IR Reykjavik | 17 | 71% | 53% | 76% |
More: Vestri season stats · IR Reykjavik season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.