Copa Sudamericana · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Vasco DA Gama at 26%, the draw at 27% and Olimpia at 46%, from expected goals of 0.97 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vasco DA Gama have 11 in 21 this season (6 of 11 at home), Olimpia 9 in 21 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 0.97 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.37 for Olimpia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 52% | 19% | 67% |
| Olimpia | 21 | 43% | 19% | 52% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.