Europa League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts Universitatea Craiova at 43%, the draw at 27% and KuPS at 31%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Universitatea Craiova have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 3 at home), KuPS 8 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Universitatea Craiova and 1.12 for KuPS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 4 | 75% | 75% | 25% |
| KuPS | 19 | 42% | 26% | 63% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.