Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 19:45. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–2). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | no pick |
The result model puts Shelbourne at 29%, the draw at 24% and Ajax at 47%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.65.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shelbourne have 17 in 26 this season (10 of 14 at home), Ajax 0 in 1 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 26 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Shelbourne and 1.65 for Ajax. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 26 | 65% | 31% | 73% |
| Ajax | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.