Copa Sudamericana · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Santos at 39%, the draw at 27% and Macara at 33%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santos have 13 in 21 this season (6 of 12 at home), Macara 12 in 24 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Santos and 1.16 for Macara. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 21 | 62% | 38% | 71% |
| Macara | 24 | 50% | 13% | 46% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.