Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 17:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–2). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | no pick |
The result model puts Rīgas FS at 66%, the draw at 18% and FK Jablonec at 15%, from expected goals of 2.32 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rīgas FS have 14 in 25 this season (8 of 12 at home), FK Jablonec 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 25 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.32 for Rīgas FS and 1.03 for FK Jablonec. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 25 | 56% | 40% | 44% |
| FK Jablonec | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.