Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | no pick |
The result model puts Qarabag at 38%, the draw at 26% and Dynamo Kyiv at 36%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Qarabag have 0 in 0 this season, Dynamo Kyiv 1 in 1 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Qarabag and 1.29 for Dynamo Kyiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | 0 | — | — | — |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.