Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 64% | no pick |
The result model puts ML Vitebsk at 47%, the draw at 29% and Borac Banja Luka at 24%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ML Vitebsk have 0 in 0 this season, Borac Banja Luka 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.3 for ML Vitebsk and 0.84 for Borac Banja Luka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML Vitebsk | 0 | — | — | — |
| Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.