Copa Libertadores · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Mirassol at 33%, the draw at 29% and LDU de Quito at 38%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mirassol have 12 in 21 this season (7 of 11 at home), LDU de Quito 6 in 24 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Mirassol and 1.15 for LDU de Quito. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 21 | 57% | 29% | 67% |
| LDU de Quito | 24 | 25% | 4% | 33% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.