Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | no pick |
The result model puts Ilves at 52%, the draw at 24% and HNK Rijeka at 24%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ilves have 12 in 19 this season (4 of 9 at home), HNK Rijeka 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Ilves and 1.04 for HNK Rijeka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves | 19 | 63% | 53% | 58% |
| HNK Rijeka | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.