Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 4–0 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts HNK Hajduk Split at 31%, the draw at 28% and FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 41%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HNK Hajduk Split have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), FK Zalgiris Vilnius 14 in 23 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 23 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.07 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.29 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 23 | 61% | 30% | 48% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.