1. Deild · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 20:15. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts HK Kopavogur at 60%, the draw at 20% and Leiknir R. at 19%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 72% | 64% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 36% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 64% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: HK Kopavogur 1.50, draw 4.50, Leiknir R. 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HK Kopavogur have 13 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), Leiknir R. 10 in 17 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.11 for HK Kopavogur and 1.1 for Leiknir R.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HK Kopavogur | 17 | 76% | 59% | 76% |
| Leiknir R. | 17 | 59% | 24% | 47% |
More: HK Kopavogur season stats · Leiknir R. season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.