Europa League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 19:45. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts Heart Of Midlothian at 54%, the draw at 23% and Benfica at 23%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Heart Of Midlothian have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Benfica 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.78 for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.07 for Benfica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Benfica | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.