Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 19:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Gent at 64%, the draw at 19% and IFK Goteborg at 18%, from expected goals of 2.39 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gent have 0 in 1 this season (0 of 1 at home), IFK Goteborg 9 in 16 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 16 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 2.39 for Gent and 1.21 for IFK Goteborg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| IFK Goteborg | 16 | 56% | 44% | 63% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.