1. Deild · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 20:15. Final score 3–3 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 69% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Fylkir at 43%, the draw at 23% and Afturelding at 34%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.56.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66% | 69% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 34% | 31% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 69% | 67% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fylkir 2.60, draw 3.70, Afturelding 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fylkir have 11 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), Afturelding 12 in 16 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Fylkir and 1.56 for Afturelding. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fylkir | 17 | 65% | 41% | 47% |
| Afturelding | 16 | 75% | 63% | 69% |
More: Fylkir season stats · Afturelding season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.