Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Flora Tallinn at 58%, the draw at 21% and Inter Club D'Escaldes at 20%, from expected goals of 2.01 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Flora Tallinn have 15 in 20 this season (7 of 10 at home), Inter Club D'Escaldes 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.01 for Flora Tallinn and 1.1 for Inter Club D'Escaldes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora Tallinn | 20 | 75% | 30% | 40% |
| Inter Club D'Escaldes | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.