Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts FK Tobol Kostanay at 44%, the draw at 25% and FK Partizan at 32%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FK Tobol Kostanay have 9 in 20 this season (5 of 9 at home), FK Partizan 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 20 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.57 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.3 for FK Partizan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 45% | 20% | 55% |
| FK Partizan | 3 | 100% | 67% | 100% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.