Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 18:30. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts FC Vaduz at 28%, the draw at 24% and Inter Turku at 48%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.7.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Vaduz have 3 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Inter Turku 6 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.25 for FC Vaduz and 1.7 for Inter Turku. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Vaduz | 3 | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| Inter Turku | 19 | 32% | 16% | 47% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.