Europa League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 5–1 (half-time 4–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 40%, the draw at 29% and Shamrock Rovers at 30%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Egnatia Rrogozhinë have 13 in 39 this season (6 of 19 at home), Shamrock Rovers 12 in 27 (6 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.99 for Shamrock Rovers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 39 | 33% | 21% | 33% |
| Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 44% | 26% | 56% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.