Conference League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 4–0 (half-time 2–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | no pick |
The result model puts Dinamo Tirana at 36%, the draw at 28% and Auda at 36%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dinamo Tirana have 13 in 39 this season (6 of 18 at home), Auda 12 in 24 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Dinamo Tirana and 1.15 for Auda. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Tirana | 39 | 33% | 15% | 41% |
| Auda | 24 | 50% | 21% | 54% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.