Europa League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | no pick |
The result model puts CSKA Sofia at 34%, the draw at 22% and Maccabi Tel Aviv at 44%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.87.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CSKA Sofia have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 in 35 (11 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 35 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 37% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.63 for CSKA Sofia and 1.87 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 4 | 75% | 25% | 50% |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 35 | 69% | 54% | 66% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.