Europa League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | no pick |
The result model puts Beşiktaş at 39%, the draw at 27% and Hradec Králové at 34%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Beşiktaş have 0 in 0 this season, Hradec Králové 2 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Beşiktaş and 1.21 for Hradec Králové. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 0 | — | — | — |
| Hradec Králové | 3 | 67% | 0% | 67% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.