Europa League · Thursday, 13 August 2026 · 19:30. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts Anderlecht at 34%, the draw at 25% and PAOK at 41%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Anderlecht have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), PAOK 18 in 32 (10 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 32 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Anderlecht and 1.53 for PAOK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| PAOK | 32 | 56% | 25% | 44% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.