Copa Sudamericana · Wednesday, 12 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts RB Bragantino at 42%, the draw at 29% and Atletico-MG at 29%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. RB Bragantino have 8 in 21 this season (5 of 11 at home), Atletico-MG 10 in 21 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.19 for RB Bragantino and 0.94 for Atletico-MG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 21 | 38% | 10% | 43% |
| Atletico-MG | 21 | 48% | 33% | 48% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.