Conference League · Wednesday, 12 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 5–1 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts FC Copenhagen at 52%, the draw at 21% and Debreceni VSC at 27%, from expected goals of 2.13 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Copenhagen have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Debreceni VSC 1 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 71% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 2.13 for FC Copenhagen and 1.5 for Debreceni VSC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Debreceni VSC | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
More: Conference League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.