Copa Libertadores · Wednesday, 12 August 2026 · 01:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Estudiantes L.P. at 45%, the draw at 27% and U. Catolica at 29%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Estudiantes L.P. have 5 in 21 this season (4 of 11 at home), U. Catolica 13 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Estudiantes L.P. and 1.07 for U. Catolica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. | 21 | 24% | 5% | 19% |
| U. Catolica | 18 | 72% | 44% | 61% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.