Copa Sudamericana · Wednesday, 12 August 2026 · 01:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Bolívar at 48%, the draw at 27% and Sao Paulo at 26%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bolívar have 0 in 0 this season, Sao Paulo 9 in 21 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Bolívar and 0.99 for Sao Paulo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolívar | 0 | — | — | — |
| Sao Paulo | 21 | 43% | 14% | 62% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.