Copa Argentina · Wednesday, 12 August 2026 · 23:15. Final score 4–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Atletico Tucuman at 39%, the draw at 30% and Independiente at 31%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Argentina has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Tucuman have 9 in 20 this season (3 of 10 at home), Independiente 7 in 21 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.12 for Atletico Tucuman and 0.95 for Independiente. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 20 | 45% | 10% | 50% |
| Independiente | 21 | 33% | 19% | 57% |
More: Atletico Tucuman season stats · Independiente season stats · Copa Argentina table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.